Archive for the ‘Commentary’ Category

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 11/30

Chicago PMI

TUESDAY 12/1

Construction Spending, ISM Index, Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales, Truck Sales

WEDNESDAY 12/2

Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Report, Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book

THURSDAY 12/3

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Productivity-Rev., Employment Cost Index, ISM Services

 

FRIDAY 12/4

 Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Factory Orders

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 11/30

OVTI

TUESDAY 12/1

 SPLS

WEDNESDAY 12/2

 ARO, SNPS

THURSDAY 12/3

DLM, MRVL, NOVL, SWHC, TOL

FRIDAY 12/4

 BIG, RY

 

Many traders approach trading as a coin flip.  Their efforts are really nothing more than gambling.  However, there are those who strictly apply trading rules for entries and exits and learn to cut their losers short and let their winners run.  This is a lot easier said than done.  It takes a great deal of discipline.  Even those adept at this style of trading find it difficult and challenging as “Emotional Capital” as well as “Trading Capital” can be depleted.  Those embracing this style of trading will encounter times when they suffer through several losing trades consecutively.  This is when you must remain steadfast and believe in your system.  Sometimes in the midst of a winning trade, the trader ends up staying too long and watching an unrealized profit morph into a realized loss.  Fear can also take hold and force a winning trade to close prematurely booking a much smaller gain than should have been. 

Another way to trade is by hedging your positions and learning how to adjust to optimize a change in trend.  This approach to trading has several advantages. 1)  We stay with a stock that we know.  This can supply a tremendous edge in that we become very familiar with how the stock reacts to the market as opposed to abandoning the stock and moving on to another unknown position.  2)  When you have confidence that you can adjust a stock and move with the trend, you begin to trade without fear.  The absence of fearful trading means that decisions are well thought out and not panic driven.  3)  Hedging can provide the luxury of not monitoring your trades 24/7 for fear of having your positions move against you.

We at www.markettamer.com specialize in hedging and trend following.  Let us show you how to trade successfully without fear and stress.  Best Robin

The DOW was rejected by the upper trend line of the channel and ended the week with a Spinning Top.  This could be just a short term pullback  and then a move back up forming a J Hook pattern.  However,  we may have a little more to the downside before continuing higher.  The predominate trend continues up.  Watch for the breakout above 10,438.  If the Spinning Top (very close to a doji) does halt the move down, we could go sideway briefly before going up.  However, it is clear to me that the bullish move is still in tact.

The SPX has a similar story as the DOW.  We have been trading in a box for the last two weeks.  Look for a break out of the box.  I feel we will test the lower trend line before resuming the trek higher.

The COMPQ has been the leader all the way up from the March lows and I see less downside potential here.  I feel that we will form a J Hook chart pattern and then break above the recent high of 3525 and continue higher into the end of the year. 

Learn to trade the Stock Market.  Click Here!

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 11/23

Existing Home Sales

TUESDAY 11/24

GDP- Preliminary, GDP Deflator – Preliminary, Case Shiller 20 City Index, Consumer Confidence, FHFA Home Price Index

WEDNESDAY 11/25

Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices, PCR Prices – Core, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Durable Orders, Durable Orders ex Transportation, Michigan Sentiment- Rev, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories

THURSDAY 11/26

Thanksgiving, Market Closed

 

FRIDAY 11/27

 None

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 11/23

CPB, HPQ, LDK, TSN, VAL

TUESDAY 11/24

 AEO, BMO, BKS, BGP, CWTR, CBRL, DLTR, HNZ, JCG, MDT

WEDNESDAY 11/25

  DE, TIF

THURSDAY 11/26

NONE

FRIDAY 11/27

 FRO

The DOW looked like it wanted to pause mid channel on its way up to the top of the broadening ascending channel, however, it continued until it ran into the upper trend line of the channel and then pulled back slightly.  The index is currently forming a tight Bull Flag on decreasing volume.  The key breakout level is the high of the flag at 10,342.  If  the DOW rolls over, it will likely come back down in the channel and retest the lower trend line.

The SPX rose to test the swing high from10/21 at 1101 putting in a top of 1105 and then pulling back.  We have a Cup & Handle chart pattern and the upside target is the first lip of the cup at 1101 and then 1105.  A pullback would take the index back to the bottom of the recent channel.

The COMPQ is also putting in a Cup & Handle with the first taget at 2179 and then 2190.  The index broke back above the lower trend line of the recent channel and will probably retest the lower trend line before bouncing higher.  The COMPQ settled right at 2168 one of the upside targets pointed out from last weeks blog. 

I feel that the market will continue to edge higher through the end of the year and into January.

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 11/16

Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-auto, Empire Manufacturing , Business Inventories

TUESDAY 11/17

Core PPI, PPI, Net Long Term TIC Flows, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production

WEDNESDAY 11/18

Housing Starts, Building Permits, Crude Inventories

THURSDAY 11/19

 Initial Claims & Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed

FRIDAY 11/20

 None

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 11/16

PSUN, SINA

TUESDAY 11/17

 CSIQ, HD, LZB, JEC, SKS, CRM, TGT, TJX

WEDNESDAY 11/18

  BJ, CHS, CSUN, CYBX, GYMB, HOTT, JACK, NTAP, NTES, PERY, PETM, PVH, SOLF

THURSDAY 11/19

BONT, CMRG, DKS, DBRN, FL, GME, GPS, HIBB, INTU, ROST, SHLD, BKE, PLCE, TSL, WSM

FRIDAY 11/20

 CRMT, ANN, DHI, SJM, KIRK

 

Next week’s earnings reports include a heavy dose of Retail including HD, TGT, TJX, CHS, HOTT and ANN among several others.  Reports from these retailers along with their forward guidance should foretell the real consumer sentiment as people vote on the economy with their wallets.

Unemployment numbers have been dismal at 10.2% with the real unemployment probably closer to 18% counting those who have given up looking for work and those who are underemployed.  November and December should set the tone going forward into 2010 and next week should be a glimpse into what the immediate future will hold for our economy.

Top line growth has been hard to come by these days with most company’s posting decent bottom lines by instituting stringent cost cutting measures.  Job cuts and inventory reduction have contributed to acceptable bottom line numbers, however, at some point these companies need to begin to grow the top line.  Forward projections from these retailers should act as somewhat of a crystal ball into the 1^st and 2^nd quarter of 2010.  Stay tuned and stay nimble.  Best Robin