Archive for the ‘Commentary’ Category

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 1/11

None

TUESDAY 1/12

Trade Balance

WEDNESDAY 1/13

Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book, Treasury Budget

 

THURSDAY 1/14

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-auto, Export Prices ex-ag. , Import Prices ex-oil, Business Inventories

 

FRIDAY 1/15

 Core CPI, CPI, Empire Manufacturing Survey, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 1/11

AA, HELE, WDFC

TUESDAY 1/12

 INFY, KBH, LLTC, SVU

WEDNESDAY 1/13

 None

THURSDAY 1/14

 BGG, INTC

FRIDAY 1/15

 JPM

 

The DOW bounced off of the top of the sideways channel and is now poised to move down and retest the bottom of the channel at 10,200.  We are expecting a definitive breakdown out of the channel and to begin testing a series of swing highs and lows that have been put in since August.  However, until the index shows its’ hand, we will sit patiently and just trade the stock where it want to go in the channel.

The SPX made an attempt to break out to the upside last week only to be rejected by several DOJIs and then a Bearish Engulfing pattern on Thursday.  We suspect that the move back inside of the channel will result in a retest of the lower end of the channel at 1084.  If the index breaks down out of the channel, which is what we feel that it will do, the next stop should be 1020-1030.

The COMPQ has been the leader all year and its move the last two weeks in breaking out of the rising wedge to the upside was very impressive.  The index has also encountered several DOJI days and then a very convincing Bearish Engulfing pattern to end the trading for the week, month and year.  Our sense is that the index will move down to test the top trend line of the rising wedge at 2240.

Stay nimble and follow the market.  Trade what you see and define your levels of support and resistance.  Let’s make 2010 a very profitable year!! Robin

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 1/4

Construction Spending, ISM Index

TUESDAY 1/5

Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales, Truck Sales

WEDNESDAY 1/6

Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Report, ISM Services, Crude Inventories

 

THURSDAY 1/7

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims

 

FRIDAY 1/8

 Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 1/4

None

TUESDAY 1/5

 SONC, MOS

WEDNESDAY 1/6

 BBBY, FDO, BLUD, MON, RT

THURSDAY 1/7

 APOL, STZ, LEN, SCHN

FRIDAY 1/8

 None

 

The DOW continues in its sideways channel and moved up to the top of that channel this past week on weak volume.  The trend is tired and ready to retrace.  The stochastics has moved back into the overbought area and the index is at the top bollinger band.  I feel that this move is merely end of the year window dressing and we are overdue for a pullback.  If we break down out of the channel, look for 10,100 as the first level of support followed by 9700 – 9800.  The upside resistance appears to be very stout and in my opinion, not likely to be challenged soon.

The SPX closed above the recent channel top but on very unremarkable volume.  We shall see if the index will continue higher, but I feel that any upside move will be short lived as we are due to pullback soon.  The “January Effect”  may allow the small caps and value stocks to shine, but that should not carry beyond the end of January.  I don’t feel that the pullback will be massive, maybe 5 to 10 percent.

The COMPQ convincingly broke to the upside with apparently no signs of indecision.  However, it was not a quality move based upon the lack of participation as measured by volume.  It will be interesting to see if we get follow through into 2010.   My next comments will be coming to in the New Year.  Stay in tune with the market and follow it.  If you go where the market goes, you will prosper in 2010.  Best, Robin

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 12/28

None

TUESDAY 12/29

Case-Schiller 20 City, Consumer Confidence

WEDNESDAY 12/30

Chicago PMI, Crude Inventories

 

THURSDAY 12/31

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims

 

FRIDAY 1/1

 Market Closed for New Years

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 12/28

None

TUESDAY 12/29

 None

WEDNESDAY 12/30

 None

THURSDAY 12/31

 None

FRIDAY 1/1

 None

The DOW is still channeling.  The ADX shows the trend to be without further impetus.  Overhead resistance is strong and even with extaordinary volume on Friday, the best that we could do was a “Spinning Top” at the lower end of the range.  I think that the index is getting ready to pullback.  The first clue would be if it broke 10,170.  There are several swing highs and lows that could act as targets if the DOW began to retrace.  The primary downside target is 9100.  I really feel that the next 1000 points to the upside are going to be tough to achieve. 

The SPX tells a similar story as the DOW.  The downside target is 850-950 if the index breaks down.  We are stalled out to the upside from the consolidation trading from 2004 at the 1125-1175 level.  Should the index break through that area, the next target would be 1325.

The COMPQ could retrace to 2025-2050 if it breaks down out of the current channel.  The upside target is 2375 – 2550.  Stay nimble and follow the market.  When the indexes break out of their sideways trading (and they will)  be ready to take advantage because it should be a good move.  I am inclined to think that the move will be down in a correction.  Keep in mind that healthly markets correct so let it do what it is going to do and be there to profit.  Robin

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 12/21

None

TUESDAY 12/22

GDP – Third Estimate, Existing Home Sales

WEDNESDAY 12/23

Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices, Michigan Sentiment- Rev, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories

 

THURSDAY 12/24

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders- ex Auto

 

FRIDAY 12/25

 Market Closed for Christmas

 

 

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 12/21

CAG, WAG

TUESDAY 12/22

 None

WEDNESDAY 12/23

 None

THURSDAY 12/24

 None

FRIDAY 12/25

 None