Archive for September, 2010

Look to the Upside But Watch the Downside

We had a very surprising move on Friday to push the market higher. Volume does not indicate that it is a quality move and there is immediate resistance. If you are long the market, tighten your stops or hedge.

Index Review!

Fear and the Unknown

Fear is defined as a feeling of agitation and anxiety caused by the presence or imminence of danger.  Fear can be exacerbated by being confronted with an unknown outcome.  When we are unsure of the outcome of a particular situation, fear can take control of our emotions and lead to hasty decisions.  When the unknown is replaced with the known, fear is eliminated and clear, precise thinking prevails.

Several years ago, I accompanied a friend of mine who operated a White Water rafting company out of Flagstaff, Arizona on a trip on the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon.  I was very excited about the adventure and after a brief orientation, we put into the Colorado for a three day trip through the canyon. 

I was raised on the ocean in Southern California and grew up body surfing and was used to the water and respected its awesome power so I was both excited but somewhat fearful.  In the beginning, our trip was mostly a float but soon we approached our first set of rapids and the roar of the thunderous water was deafening and I could only imagine the picture of being crushed against the rocks and drowning.  My heart was pounding and adrenaline surged through my body as my friend turned to me and said “We’re going to scout the rapid” as we moved the raft over to the riverbank. 

 I have to admit, I was relieved to know that I was going to be given a chance to see what the challenge was ahead of us instead of blindly going over the falls.  As we walked along the edge of the river, my friend was able to determine the danger points and our plan to safely negotiate the Big Water.

We re-entered the river and took the raft skillfully through the treacherous rapid just as we had planned.  It was exhilarating and I was able to execute my job to make it through and emerge on the other side in the calm eddies that followed the rush of water over boulders a large as houses.

So it is with trading.  Fear can prevent you from entering trades as well as shaking you out of trades for fear of losing your portfolio.  The anecdote for fear in trading is “scouting the trade” ahead of time and knowing how you will successfully and safely negotiate the market.  You must know your destination and if you are detoured by the trade, you must know your contingency exit.  With knowledge and a plan, fear fades away because you have removed the unknown and replaced it with known outcomes.  The trade now becomes merely a function of executing the plan which has been outlined well in advance.  Our methodology at www.markettamer.com gives you this skill.  The knowledge of how to trade without fear can last a lifetime and allow you to achieve consistent success in the markets. 

Fear can destroy your career as a trader if you approach the trade without “scouting the trade”.   Just as my friend “scouted the rapid” and planned our path through the roaring rapids, so can you do the same with your trading.  Best, Mark Espy aka The Robin Hood Trader

Robin Hood Trader Announced as Top Stock Market Blog Winner!

Congrats, Robin Hood Trader for being featured as one of Online MBA’s “Top 50 Stock Market Blogs” Winners for 2010.

Technical Analysis: Market Structure

It’s Time to Take Some Profits

We are testing the underside of the 200 SMA and I feel the market is tired and will retrace back into the channel and eventually test well defined support. For more information, please visit Options Revolution

Dow


S&P 500


Nasdaq

Improve Your Market Timing: The Bullish Abandoned Baby

  • A three line pattern with the first candle moving bearishly in the direction of the predominant trend.
  • The stock gaps down in the second session and the real body trades in a very tight range at the bottom of the trend with no overlapping of wicks from the prior session.
  • The final candle gaps up and trades well into the real body of the first candle, ideally on increased volume as the bulls begin to push the stock up.
  • This pattern is very similar to a Morning Star; however the difference is the magnitude of the gaps between the first and second session and the second and third session.  The “Abandoned Baby” depicts the separation of the second candle from the first and third candles and in fact appears to be “Abandoned”.
  • This is an extremely powerful and infrequent formation that rarely fails to produce results.
  • 9-3-2010 1-39-08 PMBullishAbandonedBaby

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