Commentary: Retail Takes Center Stage

Next week’s earnings reports include a heavy dose of Retail including HD, TGT, TJX, CHS, HOTT and ANN among several others.  Reports from these retailers along with their forward guidance should foretell the real consumer sentiment as people vote on the economy with their wallets.

Unemployment numbers have been dismal at 10.2% with the real unemployment probably closer to 18% counting those who have given up looking for work and those who are underemployed.  November and December should set the tone going forward into 2010 and next week should be a glimpse into what the immediate future will hold for our economy.

Top line growth has been hard to come by these days with most company’s posting decent bottom lines by instituting stringent cost cutting measures.  Job cuts and inventory reduction have contributed to acceptable bottom line numbers, however, at some point these companies need to begin to grow the top line.  Forward projections from these retailers should act as somewhat of a crystal ball into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2010.  Stay tuned and stay nimble.  Best Robin

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